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Statistics Of Doom

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R - Exploratory Factor Analysis Lecture

I had trouble understanding AR5 Chapter 10 because there was no explicit discussion of natural variability.

He is the author of one paper we will briefly look at here — his paper was very interesting and he had a video segment explaining his paper.

The models [CMIP5] are found to provide plausible representations of internal climate variability, although there is room for improvement..

The modeled internal climate variability from long control runs is used to determine whether observed and simulated trends are consistent or inconsistent.

In other words, we assess whether observed and simulated forced trends are more extreme than those that might be expected from random sampling of internal climate variability.

The model control runs exhibit long-term drifts. We assume that these drifts are due to the models not being in equilibrium with the control run forcing , and we remove the drifts by a linear trend analysis depicted by the orange straight lines in Fig.

In some CMIP3 cases, the drift initially proceeds at one rate, but then the trend becomes smaller for the remainder of the run. We approximate the drift in these cases by two separate linear trend segments, which are identified in the figure by the short vertical orange line segments.

These long-term drift trends are removed to produce the drift corrected series. Often a model simulation with no changes in external forcing piControl will have a drift in the climate diagnostics due to various flux imbalances in the model [Gupta et al.

Some studies attempt to account for possible model climate drifts, for instance Figure 9. C in Hegerl et al.

Another technique is to remove the trend, from the transient simulations, deduced from a parallel section of piControl [e.

However whether one should always remove the piControl trend, and how to do it in practice, is not a trivial issue [Taylor et al. We choose not to remove the trend from the piControl from parallel simulations of the same model in this study due to the impact it would have on long-term variability, i.

We judge this as likely an artifact due to some problem with the model simulation, and we therefore chose to exclude this model from further analysis.

Perhaps this is correct. Or perhaps the jump in simulated temperature is the climate model capturing natural climate variability.

As noted by Wittenberg and Vecchi and Wittenberg , long-running control runs suggest that internally generated SST variability, at least in the ENSO region, can vary substantially between different yr periods approximately the length of record used here for observations , which again emphasizes the caution that must be placed on comparisons of modeled vs.

In reality, questions about internal variability are not really discussed. Trends are removed, models with discontinuities are artifacts.

What is left? We use the same estimates of internal variability as in Ribes et al. We then implicitly assume that the multi-model internal variability estimate is reliable.

An estimate of internal climate variability is required in detection and attribution analysis, for both optimal estimation of the scaling factors and uncertainty analysis.

Estimates of internal variability are usually based on climate simulations, which may be control simulations i. Note that estimation of internal variability usually means estimation of the covariance matrix of a spatio-temporal climate-vector, the dimension of this matrix potentially being high.

We choose to use a multi-model estimate of internal climate variability, derived from a large ensemble of climate models and simulations.

This multi-model estimate is subject to lower sampling variability and better represents the effects of model uncertainty on the estimate of internal variability than individual model estimates.

All control simulations longer than years i. The overall drift of control simulations is removed by subtracting a linear trend over the full period..

We then implicitly assume that this multi- model internal variability estimate is reliable. Figure Warming has been observed at almost all locations with sufficient observations available since Rates of warming are generally higher over land areas compared to oceans, as is also apparent over the — period Figure Over most regions, observed trends fall between the 5th and 95th percentiles of simulated trends, and van Oldenborgh et al.

I recommend the video for a good introduction to the topic of ensemble forecasting. The proportion is the probability of rain. With weather forecasting we can continually review how well the probabilities given by ensembles match the reality.

The ensemble is considered to be an estimate of the probability density function PDF of a climate forecast. This is the method used in weather and seasonal forecasting Palmer et al Just like in these fields it is vital to verify that the resulting forecasts are reliable in the definition that the forecast probability should be equal to the observed probability Joliffe and Stephenson If outcomes in the tail of the PDF occur more less frequently than forecast the system is overconfident underconfident : the ensemble spread is not large enough too large.

In contrast to weather and seasonal forecasts, there is no set of hindcasts to ascertain the reliability of past climate trends per region.

We therefore perform the verification study spatially , comparing the forecast and observed trends over the Earth. Climate change is now so strong that the effects can be observed locally in many regions of the world, making a verification study on the trends feasible.

The paper first shows the result for one location, the Netherlands, with the spread of model results vs the actual result from But this is one data point.

So if we compared all of the datapoints — and this is on a grid of 2. In agreement with earlier studies using the older CMIP3 ensemble, the temperature trends are found to be locally reliable.

This agrees with results of Sakaguchi et al that the spatial variability in the pattern of warming is too small. The precipitation trends are also overconfident.

There are large areas where trends in both observational dataset are almost outside the CMIP5 ensemble, leading us to conclude that this is unlikely due to faulty observations.

If Chapter 10 is only aimed at climate scientists who work in the field of attribution and detection it is probably fine not to actually mention this minor detail in the tight constraints of only 60 pages.

But if Chapter 10 is aimed at a wider audience it seems a little remiss not to bring it up in the chapter itself.

As the observations are influenced by external forcing, and we do not have a non-externally forced alternative reality to use to test this assumption, an alternative common method is to compare the power spectral density PSD of the observations with the model simulations that include external forcings.

Variability for the historical experiment in most of the models compares favorably with HadCRUT4 over the range of periodicities, except for HadGEM2-ES whose very long period variability is lower due to the lower overall trend than observed and for CanESM2 and bcc-cm whose decadal and higher period variability are larger than observed.

While not a strict test, Figure S11 suggests that the models have an adequate representation of internal variability —at least on the global mean level.

In addition, we use the residual test from the regression to test whether there are any gross failings in the models representation of internal variability.

It feels like my quantum mechanics classes all over again. Chapter 9, reviewing models, stretches to over 80 pages. The section on internal variability is section 9.

However, the ability to simulate climate variability, both unforced internal variability and forced variability e. This has implications for the signal-to-noise estimates inherent in climate change detection and attribution studies where low-frequency climate variability must be estimated, at least in part, from long control integrations of climate models Section In addition to the annual, intra-seasonal and diurnal cycles described above, a number of other modes of variability arise on multi-annual to multi-decadal time scales see also Box 2.

The observational record is usually too short to fully evaluate the representation of variability in models and this motivates the use of reanalysis or proxies, even though these have their own limitations.

Figure 9. Model spread is largest in the tropics and mid to high latitudes Jones et al. The power spectral density of global mean temperature variance in the historical simulations is shown in Figure 9.

At longer time scale of the spectra estimated from last millennium simulations, performed with a subset of the CMIP5 models, can be assessed by comparison with different NH temperature proxy records Figure 9.

It should be noted that a few models exhibit slow background climate drift which increases the spread in variance estimates at multi-century time scales.

Nevertheless, the lines of evidence above suggest with high confidence that models reproduce global and NH temperature variability on a wide range of time scales.

The bottom graph shows the spectra of the last 1, years — black line is observations reconstructed from proxies , dashed lines are without GHG forcings, and solid lines are with GHG forcings.

The IPCC report on attribution is very interesting. Most attribution studies compare observations of the last — years with model simulations using anthropogenic GHG changes and model simulations without note 3.

The primary method is with global mean surface temperature, with more recent studies also comparing the spatial breakdown. I was led back, by following the chain of references, to one of the early papers on the topic that also had similar high confidence.

Current models need much less, or often zero, flux adjustment. Chapter 10 of AR5 has been valuable in suggesting references to read, but poor at laying out the assumptions and premises of attribution studies.

For clarity, as I stated in Part Three :. I believe natural variability is a difficult subject which needs a lot more than a cursory graph of the spectrum of the last 1, years to even achieve low confidence in our understanding.

Natural Variability and Chaos — One — Introduction. Natural Variability and Chaos — Two — Lorenz Application of regularised optimal fingerprinting to attribution.

CMIP5 will notably provide a multi-model context for. From the website link above you can read more. CMIP5 is a substantial undertaking, with massive output of data from the latest climate models.

Anyone can access this data, similar to CMIP3. Here is the Getting Started page. And CMIP3 :. The IPCC publishes reports that summarize the state of the science.

A more comprehensive set of output for a given model may be available from the modeling center that produced it. With the consent of participating climate modelling groups, the WGCM has declared the CMIP3 multi-model dataset open and free for non-commercial purposes.

As of July , over 36 terabytes of data were in the archive and over terabytes of data had been downloaded among the more than registered users.

For the remaining projections in this chapter the spread among the CMIP5 models is used as a simple, but crude, measure of uncertainty.

The extent of agreement between the CMIP5 projections provides rough guidance about the likelihood of a particular outcome. But—as partly illustrated by the discussion above—it must be kept firmly in mind that the real world could fall outside of the range spanned by these particular models.

See Section It is possible that the real world might follow a path outside above or below the range projected by the CMIP5 models.

Such an eventuality could arise if there are processes operating in the real world that are missing from, or inadequately represented in, the models.

Two main possibilities must be considered: 1 Future radiative and other forcings may diverge from the RCP4. A third possibility is that internal fluctuations in the real climate system are inadequately simulated in the models.

The fidelity of the CMIP5 models in simulating internal climate variability is discussed in Chapter The response of the climate system to radiative and other forcing is influenced by a very wide range of processes, not all of which are adequately simulated in the CMIP5 models Chapter 9.

Several such mechanisms are discussed in this assessment report; these include: rapid changes in the Arctic Section Additional mechanisms may also exist as synthesized in Chapter These mechanisms have the potential to influence climate in the near term as well as in the long term, albeit the likelihood of substantial impacts increases with global warming and is generally lower for the near term.

And p. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 projections are ensembles of opportunity, and it is explicitly recognized that there are sources of uncertainty not simulated by the models.

Evidence of this can be seen by comparing the Rowlands et al. The former exhibit a substantially larger likely range than the latter.

How does this recast chapter 10? Model spread is often used as a measure of climate response uncertainty, but such a measure is crude as it takes no account of factors such as model quality Chapter 9 or model independence e.

Climate varies naturally on nearly all time and space scales, and quantifying precisely the nature of this variability is challenging, and is characterized by considerable uncertainty.

The coupled pre-industrial control run is initialized as by Delworth et al. This simulation required one full year to run on 60 processors at GFDL.

First of all we see the challenge for climate models — a reasonable resolution coupled GCM running just one year simulation consumed one year of multiple processor time.

Wittenberg shows the results in the graph below. At the top is our observational record going back years, then below are the simulation results of the SST variation in the El Nino region broken into 20 century-long segments.

There are multidecadal epochs with hardly any variability M5 ; epochs with intense, warm-skewed ENSO events spaced five or more years apart M7 ; epochs with moderate, nearly sinusoidal ENSO events spaced three years apart M2 ; and epochs that are highly irregular in amplitude and period M6.

Occasional epochs even mimic detailed temporal sequences of observed ENSO events; e. If the real-world ENSO is similarly modulated, then there is a more disturbing possibility.

In that case, historically-observed statistics could be a poor guide for modelers , and observed trends in ENSO statistics might simply reflect natural variations..

Yet few modeling centers currently attempt simulations of that length when evaluating CGCMs under development — due to competing demands for high resolution, process completeness, and quick turnaround to permit exploration of model sensitivities.

Model developers thus might not even realize that a simulation manifested long-term ENSO modulation, until long after freezing the model development.

Clearly this could hinder progress. An unlucky modeler — unaware of centennial ENSO modulation and misled by comparisons between short, unrepresentative model runs — might erroneously accept a degraded model or reject an improved model.

Wittenberg shows the same data in the frequency domain and has presented the data in a way that illustrates the different perspective you might have depending upon your period of observation or period of model run.

So the different colored lines indicate the spectral power for each period. The black dashed line is the observed spectral power over the year observational period.

This wiki. This wiki All wikis. Sign In Don't have an account? Start a Wiki. Just wanted to highlight several publications from this year, which were mostly theses from some fabulous young researchers: Scofield, J.

How the presence of others affects desirability judgments in heterosexual and homosexual participants. Investigating the interaction of direct and indirect relation on memory judgments and retrieval.

Also, super proud - both of these are student theses turned papers: Maxwell, N. Investigating the interaction of direct and in-direct relation on memory judgments and retrieval.

I enjoyed talking to the group, meeting Twitter friends in real life! I have happily acquired a new Mac Book yay! At the time I had other priorities, like actually getting the site launched, so the idea got shelved Before anyone thinks about drawing any conclusions from this data about Doom WADs and editing in general, I should point out that:.

Having said all that, I consider the results interesting, in particluar the comparison of Doom editors and tools further down. The year in which the WADs were written.

Bei Red Bull Stats of Doom entscheiden allein deine Fähigkeiten über Sieg und Niederlage. Beweise dein Können mit den monatlich wechselnden Challenges. JASP - Descriptive Statistics Example · Statistics of DOOM. Statistics of In this video we explain how to edit your data using JASP statistical software. The files. Werde jetzt Patron von Statistics of DOOM: Erhalte Zugang zu exklusiven Inhalten und Erlebnissen auf der weltweit größten Mitgliedschaftsplattform für. Offizieller Post von Statistics of DOOM.

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Statistics Of Doom

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